Denial, etc

I've been aware for some time of the growing backlash against attempts to get people to take climate change seriously. The web version of almost every article on the topic in the mainstream media that allows comments to be left is these days deluged with contemptuous, angry dismissals of what is increasingly called the "agw theory" ("agw" standing for "anthropogenic global warming", and apparently not even meriting capital letters). Examples can be found here and here. And just the other day, a BBC poll of a thousand British adults found that only 26% agree that "climate change is happening and is now established as largely man-made"; that's down from 41% as recently as November.

Why is this happening? Surely not because millions of people have suddenly decided to devote hours of their lives to a detailed examination and careful assessment of the evidence, and have come to the startling conclusion that it's all bunk. No, a more plausible explanation is (in my view, and after detailed examination of the evidence, of course) to be found in the murkier reaches of human psychology.

Things are polarising, I think, precisely because the evidence is suddenly so overwhelming and was presented with such force in the media in the run up to Copenhagen. People have become increasingly aware, at least in one corner of their minds, of how serious the situation is, and how much they would need to give up to make a real difference to the outcome. They're not willing to do it, and rather than admit this to themselves, they find it easier to pretend things aren't as they are.

Some years ago, Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, a psychiatrist working with the dying, developed a model of the way people "deal with grief and tragedy, especially when diagnosed with a terminal illness or catastrophic loss". Kubler-Ross suggested that there were five stages in the process, which must not be rushed: denial ("this can't be happening"), anger ("it's not fair"), bargaining ("I will give my life savings if..."), depression ("why bother with anything?") and acceptance ("I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it"). The applicability of the model to reactions to the news of personal terminal illness has been questioned, but so far, it seems to describe pretty well many people's reactions to the bad news embodied in the evidence for (among other things) climate change.

Judging from the BBC survey and the web comments I referred to, most people currently seem to be at the denial or anger stage, sometimes both at once; the anger can take the form of "if I can't do anything about it, don't you dare bother me with having to think about it". Bargaining is exemplified by scientific and political attempts to "fix the problem" through exciting new technologies and policies, holding out the promise that we can avert catastrophe without having to undergo any unpleasant self-discipline. Depression is the silent stage; these people don't talk about it much, don't campaign, but tend to have a very clear view of the prospects. I have been surprised at how many people I've talked to, often after a few drinks, have expressed themselves in this way.

And acceptance? Well, to the extent that the Kubler-Ross model applies, that's the stage to aim for, I suppose. It is probably the only firm basis for long-term, consistent and constructive action, not to avert catastrophe (we're past the bargaining stage here, remember), but to cushion the descent: to save what and who we can, to ensure that as many of the good things about being human survive and are nurtured.

Me? Well, we all like to think we're at the upper end of any developmental scale we're presented with, and I do try and practice acceptance. But I feel very depressed a lot of the time, especially when I think about The Bean and his prospects; I was, I now believe, immobilised at that stage for almost a decade. There is still enough of the bargainer within me to make me read stories of miraculous new energy sources with great interest and to at least drop leaflets through doors for the Green Party. I don't think I ever suffered from denial, but I do feel angry, even though simply through the accident of where I was born, I have contributed a lot more to our unresolvable mess than most people on the planet.

You?